Has The Real Estate Market Bottomed Out In Prosper? Plano, Mckinney And Frisco?
Has The Real Estate Market Bottomed Out In Prosper?
Take a drive down Prosper Trail starting at the Exxon station all the way to the tollroad extension. We need not identify the subdivisions but the two between Preston and Coleman where there must be at least 500+ lots currently have no residents. There appears to be 2 models built in one subdivision and 5 specs in the other. Then continue to the tollroad and you will see another huge development on your right with no homes built…not even a model. For more empty subdivisions drive Custer Rd. from Prosper Trail to #1461. Are there some sales taking place? Yes there are a few.
Whenever I write a column, I always want to be optimistic. Optimism is a human condition. That is where we all want to be. You will see some numbers from January that would seem to indicate there is a light at the end of tunnel. Now, there is nothing I would like more than to tell you that things are looking up and 2005 is here again ! Here in Prosper, Plano, McKinney and Frisco we are reducing inventory but not at the bottom yet.
Remember the old saying that “liars figure and figures lie.” For example, what the federal government and the National Association of Realtors do not include in their reports is the “shadow inventory.” This is comprised of literally hundreds of thousands of foreclosed homes that have not been relisted yet. Believe it or not the lenders don’t always get these marketed immediately.
. Another significant omission from the stats is the “expired and terminated listings” where owners have removed their listings waiting to relist when the market improves. So, the inventory and the days on market stats are skewed and look better than they really are.
We all know the real estate market has been in the toilet for the past few years, and that nobody’s buying. It’s tough to buy a house when you have no money and no one will offer you credit. Having said this it must be noticed that north central Texas has tumbled the least (although Collin County had the largest increase in foreclosures last month over Denton and Dallas counties). Markets that hold up the best in a recession are generally the first to rebound. So, eventually Prosper,Plano, Frisco and McKinney may lead the way.
The home market is usually cyclical and history tells us it is usually 3 to 4 years. We know that half of California and Michigan would move to Texas if they could sell their
present homes. And many will. In addition, there are a lot of buyers sitting on the side lines looking for further declines in home prices. So, we know there is a lot of pent up demand out there. When demand finally surpasses supply we will be on the upswing. Prosper has a ton of inventory lots and is ready to recover.
What this all means to Prosperites is that if you are thinking of selling…hold off and if you are thinking of buying proceed cautiously and drive a hard bargain. For more infomation go to www.remingtonrealtygroup.com.
The truth is that no one will be able to forecast the bottom. We will only know this in hindsight as we begin to recover. As they say on Fox news channel, “we report…you decide. Here are the January stats for Prosper.
* 57 new listings vs. 65 for last January(down 12%)
*21 sales vs. 14 for last January( up 43%)
*$342,750 median price vs.$220,450
*89% of asking price sold vs. 92% (down 3%)
*198 average days on market VS. 184( up 7%) *Inventory of homes 212 vs 306 (down 31%)
About the Author
Remington Realty Group's Bill Remington is widely regarded for providing comprehensive real estate services to buyers and sellers of homes in Prosper, Plano,Frisco, McKinney, Carrollton,Richardson,Allen. Bill is President of Prosper Chamber of Commerce. Expert in short sales, REOs and foreclosures.Learn more
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